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AUD GDP Aides Recovery Off Weekly Low

FOREX
  • Antipodean currencies are outperforming, with AUD among the strongest performers in G10 following the Australian GDP print overnight, which topped expectations at 2.1% Y/Y vs. Exp. 1.9% across Q3 to help partially reverse the early weakness in AUD/USD and put the pair (briefly) back above the 200-dma of 0.6578. NZD/USD exhibited similar price action, with 0.6150 providing a magnet for prices across much of the European morning.
  • The USD Index sits slightly lower on the session, but is still holding solid gains off the late November low. 104.092 marks the next upside level - the weekly high - for the USD Index, but resistance seen stronger into 104.468, the 100-dma for the gauge.
  • The EUR came under light, modest pressure across the morning following missives from ECB's Kazaks who, in a presentation to MNI, stated that should the outlook change and the balance of risks for price stability shift lower, then the outlook on rates at the ECB could change ahead.
  • This leaves AUD, NZD the firmest in G10, while JPY, NOK and USD are the weakest on the session.
  • The Bank of Canada rate decision takes focus going forward, with markets left with little doubt of another hold. The focus for markets will instead be on the extent to which the BoC stress the downside risk to rates across 2024. Our full preview is found here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/58310/BOCPre...
  • ADP Employment Change data set for later today will also be eyed for clues ahead of Friday's payrolls release. Consensus currently looks for the US to have added 187k in the month of November - a figure that could be re-assessed if data comes out of line with today's ADP.
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