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AUD/NZD Edges Higher, Ranges Remain Tight

NZD
  • The AUD/NZD stabilized on Monday, halting its previous decline, as the market awaits key data releases. In New Zealand, June's ANZ consumer and business surveys are due Wednesday, with prior data showing weakening activity and easing inflation pressures. In Australia, focus shifts to the May CPI data, also expected on Wednesday, which is anticipated to show a rise in headline inflation to 3.8% year-on-year.
  • Key levels to watch: The AUD/NZD cross recorded a 0.80% gain over the previous fortnight, technical outlook remains positive in the near term, with the pair showing resilience amid economic uncertainties. Initial support lays at 1.0848 (50-day EMA), while a break of 1.0827 (June 19 lows) would open a test of 1.0800. Resistance is 1.0900 (round number), with 1.0946 (June 22 high) the next target.
  • The RBA's hawkish stance continues to support the Australian Dollar, with market expectations for the first rate cut pushed to February 2025. This contrasts with New Zealand, where the RBNZ is delaying its first rate cut to Q3 2025 despite market expectations for a cut this November.
  • Upcoming data: Australia has Westpac Consumer Confidence due out this morning.
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