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AUD/NZD Edges Lower, Holds Above 1.1100

NZD
  • The AUD/NZD was slightly lower on Monday, down 0.12% to 1.1110, with the AUD slightly unperforming due to weaker commodity prices while the AUD/USD also broke below the 50-day EMA which looked to trigger some selling in the AUD.
  • There is very little on the local calendar this week, India a major trading partner will release their budget a bit later today that may be of some relevance. The 14-day RSI has been in overbought territory for much of the past week and now sits at 67, while the MACD indictor is showing decreasing positive bars signaling a potential reversal.
  • Technical levels to watch will be; Resistance at 1.1152 (yearly high) a break here would open a move to 1.1200, while support rests at 1.1038 (20-day EMA) a break would signal a protentional directional change and open up a test of 1.1000 (July 10 lows/ pre-RBNZ).
  • The divergence in OIS pricing remains with the market pricing in 71bps of cuts into year-end for NZ, while the markets prices in 4bps of hikes into year-end for Australia.
  • The AU-NZ 2yr swap spread is just off recent highs of -4bps made on Friday, slipping to -7bps.
  • Expiries: 1.1175 ($152.13m) July 24, 1.105 ($153.85m) July 26
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