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AUD/NZD Ends Three Day Fall

NZD
  • The AUD/NZD ended a three day fall on Thursday, finishing the session up 0.17% at 1.0753. We have opened a touch higher this morning, trading at 1.0757 while ANZ has bought forward their first expected RBNZ rate cut to Feb from may.
  • The cross continues to trade well below all moving averages, the 14-day RSI has ticked higher after being in oversold territory on Thursday, while the MACD is showing a decrease in red bars, indicating a potential reversal.
  • Looking at technicals, initial support is 1.0700 (Mar 12 lows / round number) a break below here would open a retest of 1.0665 (Mar 5 low). Initial resistance is now 1.0774 (June 5 highs) a break here would see us look to test 1.0800 (round number resistance).
  • The AU-NZ 2Y swap is 3bps higher at -76bps.
  • Option expiries: 1.0700 ($200m) & 1.0800 ($200m) June 7 NY cut, notable upcoming strikes include; 1.0700 ($300m) June 10, 1.0900 ($686.22m) June 12
  • Today, Australia has Foreign Reserves at 1630 AEST,
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