AUD/NZD has given away 15 pips and......>

AUSSIE-KIWI: AUD/NZD has given away 15 pips and last deals at NZ$1.0507,

supported by the 100-DMA intersecting at NZ$1.0504. Bulls would be pleased if

that 100-DMA remained resilient and AUD/NZD bounced through the 200-DMA, which

kicks in at NZ$1.0541. The channel top at NZ$1.0555 provides the next bullish

target above. On the flip side, a fall below the former breakout point at

NZ$1.0506 (Feb 11 high) and the 100-DMA would encourage bears to take aim at the

50-DMA, now at NZ$1.0411.

- The coronavirus situation retains centre stage, overshadowing a slightly wider

than expected trade surplus reported by Australia today.

- NZD has recovered, leaving behind its high-beta peers after the space was

pressured as California called a state of emergency re: Covid-19 outbreak.

- The RBA cut its cash rate by 25bp Tuesday and the focus moves to the impending

decision from the RBNZ, whose meeting is slated for Mar 25. Looking at mkt

pricing, a 25bp cut from Gov Orr et al is fully baked in, with a ~59% implied

odds of a double-sized cut. If the RBNZ indeed reduces the OCR by 50bp, it would

bring the OCR to parity with Australia's cash rate.