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AUD/NZD Little Changed, Erasing CPI Move

NZD
  • The AUD/NZD was little changed on Wednesday, closing the session up just 0.02% at 1.0867. There was an initial pop on the back of slightly stronger-than-expected CPI data out of Australia, although this move was entirely erased by the US session.
  • Initial support is now 1.0844 (Aug lows) while below here 1.0800 (round number) become a target with the June lows of 1.0733 the next major support. To the upside if the currency can trade back above the trendline & 200-day EMA at 1.0887 then 1.0932 (100-day EMA) and above here 1.0940-50 (20 & 50-day EMAs) become target.
  • RBA dated OIS is pricing in just a 9% chance of a cut in the September meeting, OIS pricing has softened 6bps into year-end to 23bps.
  • The AU-NZ 2yr swap spread jumped 2.5bps post CPI to -9bps.
  • Expiries: 1.0700 ($504.68m) & 1.092 ($1.08b) for Aug 29th NY cut
  • Today, Private Capital Expenditure at 11:30 AEST / 9:30 HKT
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