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AUD/NZD Little Changed, Trades At 4 Weeks Highs

NZD
  • The AUD/NZD ended Wednesday trading down 0.05% at 1.0875, ending its four-day winning streak post a hawkish RBA on Tuesday.
  • The four-day rally has put the cross at a four-week high, enjoying bullish momentum, with the bounce off this month’s 1.0734 twin lows halving the May-to-June decline.
  • The cross is now trading above all major EMAs, with the 14-day RSI at 57 and the MACD in positive territory.
  • Looking at technicals, initial support is 1.0847 (50-day EMA), while a break of 1.0827 (June 19 lows) would open a test of 1.0800. Resistance is 1.0900 (round number), with 1.0946 (June 22 highs).
  • Kim Mundy, senior economist at ASB Bank in Auckland, noted that since mid-2022, the New Zealand economy has seen a significant deterioration in momentum, erasing much of the initial post-COVID recovery strength. With restrictive monetary policy expected to persist, Mundy anticipates further economic contraction in Q2.
  • The AU-NZ 2Y swap is 9bp higher at -63bps.
  • Option expiries: 1.0925 ($604.12m) June 20th, while upcoming expiries are 1.075 ($302.33m) June 24, 1.0900 ($293.58m), 1.085 ($649.86m)
  • Today, we have Australian Judo Bank PMIs
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