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AUD/NZD Slides Ahead Of AU CPI

NZD
  • The AUD/NZD pair saw sellers step in on Tuesday, erasing all daily gains and pushing the cross to 1.0860, we have opened up 0.05% at 1.0865. Investors are keenly awaiting guidance from the RBA and the RBNZ.
  • In Australia, Westpac Consumer Confidence rose by 1.7% to 83.6 in June, the first increase since February. The key focus this week is the May CPI data release on Wednesday, expected to show a year-on-year rise to 3.8%. The swaps market sees less than 25% odds of a rate cut by December 2024, increasing to around 65% in February 2025.
  • Key levels to watch: Initial support lays at 1.0849 (50-day EMA), while a break of 1.0827 (June 19 lows) would open a test of 1.0800. Resistance is 1.0900 (round number), with 1.0946 (June 22 high) the next target.
  • The RBA's hawkish stance continues to support the Australian Dollar, with market expectations for the first rate cut pushed to February 2025. This contrasts with New Zealand, where the RBNZ is delaying its first rate cut to Q3 2025 despite market expectations for a cut this November.
  • Upcoming data: Australia has CPI due out today
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