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AUD/NZD Slightly Higher, Still Holds Below 200-day EMA

NZD
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  • AUD/NZD finished Monday's session up 0.07% at 1.0830, the cross continues to traded sideways and hovers just below the 200-day EMA. We have NZ ANZ business survey data this morning, followed by AU CPI while focus will then turn to NZ budget tomorrow. The 14-day RSI was slightly higher at 34, while the MACD is showing decreasing red bars.
  • The NZD has benefitted from higher milk prices and a hawkish RBNZ, although overnight Fonterra kept their milk prices forecast for 23/24 unchanged at NZ$7.8/kg, there could also be further upside in the currency if tomorrow's budget has large stimulus which may force the RBNZ to hike.
  • Looking at technicals, we trade just below the 200-day EMA at 1.0832 a break back above here would see the pair look to test 1.0854 (100-day EMA), initial support is now 1.0800 (round number support).
  • The AU-NZ 2Y swap is 6.5bps lower at -90bps.
  • Option expiries: 1.100 ($100m) May 28 NY cut, upcoming notable strikes include 1.095 ($246.58m) May 30, 1.075 (202.33m) May 30, 1.126 ($373.71m) May 30
  • Looking ahead, NZ Business Survey's, AU Leading Index & CPI
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  • AUD/NZD finished Monday's session up 0.07% at 1.0830, the cross continues to traded sideways and hovers just below the 200-day EMA. We have NZ ANZ business survey data this morning, followed by AU CPI while focus will then turn to NZ budget tomorrow. The 14-day RSI was slightly higher at 34, while the MACD is showing decreasing red bars.
  • The NZD has benefitted from higher milk prices and a hawkish RBNZ, although overnight Fonterra kept their milk prices forecast for 23/24 unchanged at NZ$7.8/kg, there could also be further upside in the currency if tomorrow's budget has large stimulus which may force the RBNZ to hike.
  • Looking at technicals, we trade just below the 200-day EMA at 1.0832 a break back above here would see the pair look to test 1.0854 (100-day EMA), initial support is now 1.0800 (round number support).
  • The AU-NZ 2Y swap is 6.5bps lower at -90bps.
  • Option expiries: 1.100 ($100m) May 28 NY cut, upcoming notable strikes include 1.095 ($246.58m) May 30, 1.075 (202.33m) May 30, 1.126 ($373.71m) May 30
  • Looking ahead, NZ Business Survey's, AU Leading Index & CPI