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AUD/NZD Slips Ahead Of RBNZ, Breaks 100-Day EMA

NZD
  • The AUD/NZD was lower again on Tuesday, marking the third session in a row of losses. The cross tested 1.0900 overnight before recovering to close the session down 0.26% at 1.0916
  • Looking at techs, initial support is 1.0900 (round number support), with 1.0882 (200-day EMA) the next support. The cross broke back below the 100-day EMA overnight at 1.0928, a move back above here would see resistance at 1.0970-80 (50 & 20-day EMAs)
  • RBA dated OIS is pricing a 11% chance of a cut in September, down from 16% on Tuesday, with 25bps of cuts into year-end.
  • The AU-NZ 2yr swap spread was -5bps on Tuesday at -17bps
  • The cross has some large option expiries coming up with $1b call at 1.0950, $774m call at 1.115 expiring on Aug 15th NY Cut
  • Today, we have a 2034 bond auction at 11:00 AEST
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