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AUD/NZD Slips On Slightly Dovish RBA Minutes

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  • The AUD/NZD has slipped back below 1.1000, falling 0.42% to 1.0966 overnight as the NZD continues to strong run. The cross had struggled over the past week to break above 1.1050, with the slightly dovish RBA minutes released on Tuesday causing the cross to edge slightly lower, with strong GDT dairy prices overnight further supporting the NZD.
  • The cross has broken back below the 20 & 50-day EMAs with the 14-Day RSI back below 50 at 46, while the MACD is looking neutral. Initial support is at 1.0936 (100-day EMA), a break here would open a move to 1.0889 (200-day EMA), while to the upside 1.1000 (round number) is key resistance.
  • RBA dated OIS is pricing in little chance of a cut over the next two meetings, in line with what the RBA has come out saying, December OIS is pricing in 22bps of cuts, with a jump to 41bps of cuts at the Feb meeting.
  • The AU-NZ 2yr swap spread fell 6.5bps on Tuesday, off it's multi-year highs to -5bps.
  • Expiries: 1.0800 ($500m), 1.0975 ($600.69m), 1.1111 ($727.67m) Aug 21 NY cut, 1.1300 ($601.78m)
  • Today, we have Judo Bank PMI composite, Westpac Leading Index & Australia to Sell 2033 bonds
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  • The AUD/NZD has slipped back below 1.1000, falling 0.42% to 1.0966 overnight as the NZD continues to strong run. The cross had struggled over the past week to break above 1.1050, with the slightly dovish RBA minutes released on Tuesday causing the cross to edge slightly lower, with strong GDT dairy prices overnight further supporting the NZD.
  • The cross has broken back below the 20 & 50-day EMAs with the 14-Day RSI back below 50 at 46, while the MACD is looking neutral. Initial support is at 1.0936 (100-day EMA), a break here would open a move to 1.0889 (200-day EMA), while to the upside 1.1000 (round number) is key resistance.
  • RBA dated OIS is pricing in little chance of a cut over the next two meetings, in line with what the RBA has come out saying, December OIS is pricing in 22bps of cuts, with a jump to 41bps of cuts at the Feb meeting.
  • The AU-NZ 2yr swap spread fell 6.5bps on Tuesday, off it's multi-year highs to -5bps.
  • Expiries: 1.0800 ($500m), 1.0975 ($600.69m), 1.1111 ($727.67m) Aug 21 NY cut, 1.1300 ($601.78m)
  • Today, we have Judo Bank PMI composite, Westpac Leading Index & Australia to Sell 2033 bonds