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AUSSIE-KIWI: AUD/NZD sold off sharply last week, taking a nosedive through the
50-DMA, an ascending trendline and a support zone from the Oct lows. As a
result, the rate broke out of its recent range. The drop was foreshadowed by
negative divergences unfolding both in the MACD and RSI indicators, which warned
of an imminent market top. The 100-DMA and a new tentative trendline (the dashed
line in the chart) at NZ$1.0628/20 have so far proven resilient, but if firmly
severed, they would expose the 200-DMA at NZ$1.0567.
- Central banks were key in driving price action last week. The RBNZ's surprise
decision to leave the OCR unch. without communicating urgency to loosen policy
put a bid into NZD. Across the Tasman, a bleak Aussie labour mkt report boosted
RBA easing bets, hurting AUD. Today's minutes from the RBA's Nov meeting
reassured the doves, revealing that members mulled trimming the cash rate.
- Elsewhere, the drawn-out Sino-U.S. trade negotiations remain under scrutiny.
Any breakthrough would allow the AUD/NZD to bounce, but so far a flurry of
duelling headlines has effectively left us in the dark.
- See chart at: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/AUDNZD19112019.png