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AUD/NZD Steady At 1.0820 Ahead Of AU Retail Sales

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  • AUD/NZD finished Monday's session little changed at 1.0822, the cross traded sideway for the past three sessions, as we await the NZ Budgets on Thursday. The 14-day RSI was unchanged on Monday and sits near oversold territory at 32, while the MACD is showing increasing red bars.
  • The currency is off almost 2% from recent cycle highs, on the back of higher dairy prices, which are up almost 10% over the past month, and a more hawkish RBNZ. Further downside could be limited without a dovish RBA or further beats in NZ Inflation data, while a large NZ budget stimulus may also contribute to NZD strength.
  • Looking at technicals, initial resistance is 1.0854 (100-day EMA), initial support is now 1.0800 (round number support).
  • The AU-NZ 2Y swap is 4bps lower at -84.5bps.
  • Option expiries: 1.0970 ($100.27m) May 27 NY cut, upcoming notable strikes include 1.1000 ($100m) May 29, 1.075 (202.33m) May 30, 1.0950 ($246.58m) May 30
  • Looking ahead, Australian Retail Sales at 11.30am AEST
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  • AUD/NZD finished Monday's session little changed at 1.0822, the cross traded sideway for the past three sessions, as we await the NZ Budgets on Thursday. The 14-day RSI was unchanged on Monday and sits near oversold territory at 32, while the MACD is showing increasing red bars.
  • The currency is off almost 2% from recent cycle highs, on the back of higher dairy prices, which are up almost 10% over the past month, and a more hawkish RBNZ. Further downside could be limited without a dovish RBA or further beats in NZ Inflation data, while a large NZ budget stimulus may also contribute to NZD strength.
  • Looking at technicals, initial resistance is 1.0854 (100-day EMA), initial support is now 1.0800 (round number support).
  • The AU-NZ 2Y swap is 4bps lower at -84.5bps.
  • Option expiries: 1.0970 ($100.27m) May 27 NY cut, upcoming notable strikes include 1.1000 ($100m) May 29, 1.075 (202.33m) May 30, 1.0950 ($246.58m) May 30
  • Looking ahead, Australian Retail Sales at 11.30am AEST