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AUD on Top as CPI Drives Spot Gains and Solid Volumes

FOREX
  • AUD retains the position as best performer through the London open, with the interest in the currency clear to see by the considerably higher volumes across futures relative to the average for this time of day. The CPI release saw close to 4,000 contracts trade inside three minutes (cash equivalent of ~$250mln), making for volumes to be close to double what you'd expect to see at 7am UK.
  • The higher-than-expected CPI put prices to just below the $0.64 handle, but the rate's drifted since, with the gravity of more sizeable option strikes at 0.6325 (A$421mln) and $0.63 (A$727mln) possibly weighing.
  • The greenback is mixed-to-lower, but well toward the upper-end of the week's range. The recovery off lows yesterday reinforces the importance of the 50-dma support in the USD Index at 105.283. The longer prices hold above this mark (which is trending higher), the more likely a resumption of the M/T uptrend drawn off the July low.
  • German IFO data for October, Eurozone money supply are the morning highlights ahead of the Bank of Canada decision at 1500BST. Both Lagarde and Powell make public appearances in the evening, but both will steer clear of policy given the ECB, Fed media blackouts.
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