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MNI BRIEF: Dallas Fed Price Gauge Slows To 4.4% Over Year

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AUD on Top as CPI Shoots Higher

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  • Australia posted a stronger set of inflation data, which was uniformly above market expectations, and helped pushed market pricing to a 25bps hike for the February meeting. CPI at 8.4% was well above the 7.7% expectation, meaning Australia ended 2022 with inflation well ahead of target. The release prompted some sell-side analysts to consider the likelihood of a 50bps move at the RBA's February meeting, putting AUD ahead of all others in G10 ahead of the NY crossover.
  • Conversely, NZ inflation came in below RBNZ expectations, which has worked against the NZD and yield momentum for the currency. NZD/USD fell to 0.6467, but dips have been supported, through the European morning.
  • JPY is gaining against most others in G10, with some focus paid to BBG citing an ex-BoJ economist in expecting the new BoJ governor to shift away from the yield curve control programme. EUR/JPY has traded poorly across European hours, and sits below yesterday's 131.26 lows ahead of the NY crossover.
  • The Bank of Canada rate decision takes focus Wednesday, with the bank seen raising rates by 25bps to 4.50% for the final hike of the cycle. Data releases and central bank speakers are few and far between Wednesday, with the Fed remaining inside their media blackout period.
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  • Australia posted a stronger set of inflation data, which was uniformly above market expectations, and helped pushed market pricing to a 25bps hike for the February meeting. CPI at 8.4% was well above the 7.7% expectation, meaning Australia ended 2022 with inflation well ahead of target. The release prompted some sell-side analysts to consider the likelihood of a 50bps move at the RBA's February meeting, putting AUD ahead of all others in G10 ahead of the NY crossover.
  • Conversely, NZ inflation came in below RBNZ expectations, which has worked against the NZD and yield momentum for the currency. NZD/USD fell to 0.6467, but dips have been supported, through the European morning.
  • JPY is gaining against most others in G10, with some focus paid to BBG citing an ex-BoJ economist in expecting the new BoJ governor to shift away from the yield curve control programme. EUR/JPY has traded poorly across European hours, and sits below yesterday's 131.26 lows ahead of the NY crossover.
  • The Bank of Canada rate decision takes focus Wednesday, with the bank seen raising rates by 25bps to 4.50% for the final hike of the cycle. Data releases and central bank speakers are few and far between Wednesday, with the Fed remaining inside their media blackout period.