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AUD on Top as Sell-Side Slates Further Hikes

FOREX
  • AUD remains the best performer in G10 headed through to the European morning, helping the currency snap a small part of the weakness noted across the second half of last week. Last week's gains resulted in a print above key resistance at 0.6806, Apr 14 high and resistance to watch this week is 0.6818, the May 10 high. A clear break of this level is required to reinstate a bullish theme.
  • NAB's updated RBA view is also helping aide a bounce - they see two further rate rises to tip the rate target to 4.35% - an outcome not currently well priced across bond and STIR markets.
  • The option pipeline this week most notably sees strikes clustered around the 0.67 strike - over A$1.75bln is set to roll off at that mark between now and Friday's cut, turning focus to RBA minutes due tomorrow as well as jobs data and inflation expectations stats on Thursday.
  • JPY is at the bottom-end of the G10 slate, edging lower as USD/JPY extends the partial retracement of the early May weakness. The Monday high is within range of the May 5th best at 136.63. Strength through here opens the 200-dma of 137.05 for direction - after which markets have set the stage for new cycle highs above 137.77.
  • Data slate is typically light for a Monday, with Empire Manufacturing numbers the highlight. Markets look for the headline to deteriorate to -4.0 from +10.8 previously. The speaker slate is busier, with Fed's Bostic (three appearances!), Goolsbee, Kashkari andf Cook all on the docket. ECB's Nagel and BoE's Pill also make appearances.
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