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AUD Sinks as RBA Move to Temper Hawkish Outlook Post-Hike

FOREX
  • The greenback is the strongest performer in G10, helping the USD Index post a second consecutive session of gains to partially reverse Friday's sharp pull lower. The USD Index remains below the 50-dma resistance at 105.727, which provides the first upside level.
  • Equity futures are a touch lower, with the e-mini S&P off by 7 points or so and pointing to a lower cash open on Wall Street later today. This has helped aide the USD strength, while AUD sits as the poorest performer after the RBA's 25bps rate hike (as expected) was accompanied by a switch to data-dependency, moderating the tightening message from the bank. AUD/USD erased Friday's rally in response, with 0.6394 marking the next support (50-dma).
  • Meanwhile, NOK/SEK has plumbed new multi-month lows, with the March 21 low of 0.9725 the next downside level to watch. Moves coincide with a further weakening in the oil price, as Brent and WTI crude futures both post multi-week lows early Tuesday. Focus for Scandi currencies turns to Friday's inflation release (one of only 2 remaining CPI prints before the December policy meeting and fresh set of path projections). A lower than expected October CPI could result in markets pricing out a December hike, posing renewed risks to NOK.
  • US and Canadian trade balance data takes focus Tuesday, while the speakers schedule is long: Kashkari, Goolsbee, Barr, Waller, Williams and Logan are all set to speak as well as ECB's Nagel.
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