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AUD/USD Eyeing Move Back Above 0.6700 Post RBA

AUD

AUD/USD has continued to climb post the RBA's surprise +25bps hike, which wasn't expected by the market (some economists forecast it, but market pricing gave only a small chance to a hike). We currently sit in the 0.6690/95 region, which is just off session highs (0.6695). AUD/USD was sub 0.6630 prior to the outcome. We are now close to +1% above NY closing levels and comfortably outperforming the rest of the G10.

  • We are right on the 50-day MA currently (just under 0.6690), while the 20-day EMA has been breached at 0.6673. Holding above these levels would leave open the possibility of a move into the 0.6700/0.6800 region.
  • Bond yields are sharply higher. The 2yr government bond yield up 22bps, which has seen the AU-US 2yr spread move up to -86bps, not too far off Mar/Apr highs.
  • The RBA noted some further tightening may be required, but that will depend on how the economy and inflation evolve.
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