AUD/USD Finds Support Ahead Of 0.6500, RBA SoMP In Focus Today

AUD/USD got to fresh lows late in Asia Pac trade, dipping into the 0.6510/15 region, but recovered ground in the NY session. The pair got back close to 0.6570, before closing near 0.6550, a gain of 0.20% for Thursday's session. Most G10 pairs firmed against the USD, although gains were fairly modest. The DXY was down slightly (-0.09%) but the BBDXY close to flat.

• The bears still remain in control from a technical standpoint. Focus remains on whether we can break sub 0.6500, which would open up the May 31 low of 0.6548, which is also a bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.6709, the 50-day EMA.
• AUD/USD firmed through NY trade despite a softer equity backdrop and a further move up in US Tsy yields, as the curve steepened. US data was mixed with the services PMI prints a touch below expectations.
• The aggregate Bloomberg commodity price index rose ~0.50%, as oil prices firmed on supply news, while the base metals sub index gained 0.83%. Iron ore futures are back near $102/ton after a brief dip sub $100/ton.
• The data calendar is empty today, but we do have the RBA Quarterly Statement of Monetary Policy out, where focus will rest on the updated RBA forecast projections. Importantly it appears that the RBA’s forecasts are broadly unchanged from May, at least based off the monetary policy statement from Tuesday when the RBA left rates unchanged.