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AUSSIE
AUSSIE: AUD/USD's post AU-labour market report rally has remained capped, with
participants noting that the fall in the unemployment rate was a result of the
lower than expected participation rate. The RBA will likely look through the
most data. The reaction in mkt pricing of RBA hikes has been ltd. RBA Dep. Gov.
Debelle spoke Weds, suggesting that unemployment may fall further than it has
done in prev. instances before wages pick up. This points to a limited RBA
reaction function in the case of a lower unemp. rate absent an uptick in wages
(especially when driven by a lower part. rate).
- It is worth noting that the unemp. rate has now reached a level that the RBA
was exp. it to hit in late '20, although this was also covered by Debelle, as he
noted that unemp. may decline at a faster rate than the Bank exp.
- All in all, absent an uptick in wage growth over the coming months, the latest
leg lower in the unemployment rate, if maintained, is unlikely to have a major
impact on the trajectory of RBA MonPol in isolation.
- AUD/USD last $0.7125. Initial support at the October 11 NY low ($0.7091), with
initial resistance at Wednesday's intraday high ($0.7160).
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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