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AUDNZD: AUD/NZD Holds Steady, AU-NZ 2yr Swaps At Highs

AUDNZD
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  • The AUD/NZD made a new intraday cycle high, hitting 1.1055 before closing the session only slightly higher on Monday, up just 0.01% to 1.1033.
  • The cross is expected to continue trending higher and is likely to test 1.1100 if indeed there is a 50bps cut this week although the escalating Middle Eastern tensions could undermine both the AUD and NZD, supporting the USD.
  • RBA dated OIS pricing initially cooled following Friday NFP, however those moves have reversed somewhat with 11bps of cuts priced by year-end, up from 9bps on Monday. While looking further out to August 2025, there has been some large moves with OIS pricing just 55bps of cuts from 102bps on Friday.
  • Initial resistance is 1.1057 (August Highs) a break here would open a move to here 1.1100, while further up the yearly highs rest at 1.1152. While to the downside a break back below 1.100 would open a move to 1.0935-1.0945 (20, 50-day EMA).
  • The AU-NZ 2yr swap spread made new highs on Monday, reaching 34bps.
  • Expiries: 1.0835 ($690m) Oct 9th
  • Today we have Westpac Consumer Conf,  RBA Minutes & NAB Business Surveys 
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  • The AUD/NZD made a new intraday cycle high, hitting 1.1055 before closing the session only slightly higher on Monday, up just 0.01% to 1.1033.
  • The cross is expected to continue trending higher and is likely to test 1.1100 if indeed there is a 50bps cut this week although the escalating Middle Eastern tensions could undermine both the AUD and NZD, supporting the USD.
  • RBA dated OIS pricing initially cooled following Friday NFP, however those moves have reversed somewhat with 11bps of cuts priced by year-end, up from 9bps on Monday. While looking further out to August 2025, there has been some large moves with OIS pricing just 55bps of cuts from 102bps on Friday.
  • Initial resistance is 1.1057 (August Highs) a break here would open a move to here 1.1100, while further up the yearly highs rest at 1.1152. While to the downside a break back below 1.100 would open a move to 1.0935-1.0945 (20, 50-day EMA).
  • The AU-NZ 2yr swap spread made new highs on Monday, reaching 34bps.
  • Expiries: 1.0835 ($690m) Oct 9th
  • Today we have Westpac Consumer Conf,  RBA Minutes & NAB Business Surveys