-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Global Macro Weekly -
About Us
To read the full story
Close
Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessTrending Top 5
Market News Topics
August 31, 2023 15:50 GMT
Aug HICP: Nomura Sees Hawkish Skip In Sept; TD Sees Hike (2/2)
EUROZONE DATA
- JP Morgan: “Interpreting the Euro area core data has been hard due to distortions (a base effect this summer due to German transport prices and the impact of HICP weight changes this year). We think these effects are currently lifting core inflation by 0.7-0.8%-pt, thus core inflation would be closer to 4.5%oya once these distortions are controlled for. These distortions are concentrated in services. Excluding those distortions services price inflation would also be close to 4.5%oya. These distortions will start to drop off meaningfully in September. The transport price distortion (a base effect worth about 0.3%-pt) will come off the number next month. The weight distortion will also gradually disappear during the rest of the year starting next month. “
- Nomura: "We know the ECB expected headline HICP inflation of 5.5% for July, and we think it likely expected 5.3% for August. If we assume our forecast for September is realised, core HICP inflation would average 5.2% in Q3 2023, in line with the ECB’s own forecast. Hence, core inflation data appear to be evolving in line with its expectations for the moment…This, in our view, justifies the ECB skipping September in a hawkish manner. However, we think that, come October, data will have justified a de facto end to the ECB's hiking cycle, leaving the depo rate at a terminal level of 3.75%."
- Nordea: “The key discussion points at the ECB are likely to centre on the core disinflation process. On the one hand, the economic outlook is deteriorating … On the other hand, core inflation remains stubborn and the labour market remains tight, suggesting that more may need to be done either in terms of additional rate hikes or a longer period of keeping rates high...Today’s data does not push expectations significantly in either direction, though on the margin core services price inflation remains stubbornly high and keeps the risk of a rate hike alive. However, we stick to the view that the ECB is most likely done hiking.”
- TD: “The strength in core was largely driven by a sharp 0.6% m/m rise in core goods prices—the second largest August increase on record….Key though for the ECB is services inflation, and here development were more promising, with a 0.2% m/m increase (roughly normal for August) pulling the year-on-year rate down to 5.5%. That said, this comes following two notably strong prints in June and July, so it is too early to tell what this means for the trajectory of services inflation moving forward. In fact, 3m/3m momentum in services inflation still remains around its strongest on record. As such, today's data, while tentatively positive for services, continues to suggest that the ECB will deliver another 25bps hike at the September meeting.”
To read the full story
Close
Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok