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Aug PMI: Slowing Momentum Mainly Reflects Supply Constraints

UK DATA

The UK posted a much weaker than expected August flash services PMI reading of 55.5 (vs 59.1 expected, 59.6 prior), but manufacturing decelerated by less than expected at 60.1 (vs 59.5 expected, 60.4 prior).

  • The services figure was a 6-month low, with manufacturing at a 5-month low.
  • According to IHS Markit, the main culprit in the weak readings was supply-side constraints on output rather than weakness in demand: "Survey respondents widely reported constraints on business activity due to staff shortages and supply chain issues. Efforts to rebuild capacity and strong optimism towards the business outlook contributed to the fastest rise in employment numbers since the index began in January 1998. Nonetheless, backlogs of work increased for the sixth month in a row as businesses struggled to keep up with customer demand."
  • Indeed, "incidences of reduced output due to shortages of staff or materials were fourteen times higher than usual and the largest since the survey began in January 1998."
  • So economic momentum is slowing, but a large portion of this is due to supply constraints.
  • Notably though, while there were reports of higher wages, inflation pressures overall appeared to have moderated in August (input cost inflation was a 3-month low).


Source: IHS Markit, MNI

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