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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CHINA DATA
A reminder that China activity prints for August are due tomorrow, along with the 1yr MLF outcome. China data outcomes have been more mixed in the past month, with manufacturing PMIs more resilient, although services PMIs have continued to moderate. Inflation has improved modestly, while August credit data was better than expected.
- The Citi China EASI is up off recent lows, but remains in negative territory at -21. The chart below plots the EASI against 2023 China GDP growth expectations.
- The 1yr MLF is expected to be held steady at 2.50%, with a forecast range of 2.40-2.50%, although only Bloomberg economics is forecasting a cut. In terms of MLF volumes, the projection is 412.5bn yuan, versus 401bn prior.
- On the activity side, IP for August is projected at 3.9% y/y, prior 3.7% (forecast range 3.4-4.4%).
- Retail sales are forecast at 3.0%, prior 2.5% (forecast range is 1.0%-4.0%).
- Fixed asset Invesment is forecast at 3.3% ytd y/y, prior 3.4% (forecast range is 2.9%-3.6%)
- Property investment is forecast at -8.9% ytd y/y, prior -8.5% (forecast range is -8.4% to -14.2%).
- Residential property sales will also print, no consensus estimate is out, with the prior being 0.7% ytd y/y. New home prices data for August are also due, prior was -0.23% m/m.
- Finally, the jobless rate is projected at 5.3% in August, unchanged from July.
Fig 1: Citi China EASI Versus China 2023 Growth Expectations
Source: Citi/MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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