August Climbs to Three-Session High

Nordic August power base load edged slightly up at the end of last week to reach the highest in three sessions. The contract could be further supported today once it becomes liquid amid upward price movements in European gas, which is adding support to neighbouring European power markets, with price increases in EU ETS adding additional upward pressure.

• Nordic Base Power AUG 24 up 2% at 30.9 EUR/MWh on 28 June.
  
• France Base Power AUG 24 up 1.7% at 51.81 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power AUG 24 up 1.3% at 77.75 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 up 2% at 68.8 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas AUG 24 up 1.1% at 34.855 EUR/MWh
• high nuclear maintenance across the month of august is anticipated, which could support prices on delivery. The 1.04GW Forsmark unit 1 will be fully offline over 19-26 August with its capacity varying from 0 to full capacity over 26 August-15 September.
• The 1.13GW Ringhals unit 4 will also be fully disconnected over 15 August-13 September, while both 507MW Loviisa 1 & 2 are anticipated to be disconnect over 31 August-30 September and 4-25 August, respectively.
• But closer in, Nordic nuclear capacity is at 78% today, up by 1 percentage point from Friday, with 10 out of the 11 units offline, according to Bloomberg.
• The Forsmark unit 1 and Ringhals unit 4 are both operating at 50% of the capacity, with the Ringhals 3 disconnected until 13 July.
• Average temperatures throughout the Nordics are expected to be below the 30-year norm of about 17C for most of the two-week forecast- dropping as low as 15C on 5 July, according to the latest ECMWF forecast.
• But forecasts for precipitation point to rainfall being mostly above the seasonal average over 1-10 July, which could support hydro stocks and reduce supply risks.
• Norwegian wind is anticipated at a 25% load factor, or 1.31GW on 2 July – which may weigh down delivery prices, and will remain firm at between 1.02-1.09GW over 3-4 July.