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August Headline Annual CPI Expected at 5.59%

MEXICO
  • USDMXN holds a very narrow range (19.87-19.98) on the week as we approach August CPI data. The annual headline rate is expected to fall to 5.59% versus 5.81%, but broadly in line with the most recent Bi-weekly Aug-15 print.
    • Energy prices should account for most of the decline, due to base effects and price controls.
    • Core CPI for the month is expected to fall to 0.42% from 0.48% in July.
    • Note – there will be one more set of CPI data released on September 23 before the next Banxico meeting on September 30.
  • Separately, Mexico's plan to use IMF funds to pay debt will take time, according Finance Minister Rogelio Ramirez de la O in an interview. He commented that the Ministry is in informal talks with the central bank on IMF reserves.
    • The higher deficit in the 2022 budget proposal is a pragmatic decision.
    • The budget proposal forecasts the general deficit at 3.1%, up from 2.4% in the preliminary budget.
  • 10am Mex City time: Central bank chief Alejandro Diaz de Leon to speak on webinarabout the function of the bank.
  • 10am Mex City time: U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris meeting with top Mexican officials in Washington to deepen supply chains and discuss economic aid.
  • 3pm Mex City time: Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard, Economy Minister Tatiana Clouthier and Deputy Finance Minister Gabriel Yorio to speak at press conference at Mexican embassy after talks with Harris.
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