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August IPCA-15 Annual Inflation Expected To Breach 9%

BRAZIL
  • The strong rebound in oil prices and iron ore prompted a very strong session for the Brazilian real, firming just under 3% on Tuesday.
  • Additional comments from Lower house speaker Arthur Lira reaffirming Brazil's fiscal rules will be respected gave a significant boost to local assets. The Ibovespa index gained as much as 2.4% to 120,340 with the iron ore price jump sending Vale and CSN's mining unit higher.
  • Overnight, BCB Governor Campos Neto commented that there is noise in the market about Brazil's fiscal situation and the water crisis should pressure inflation in the coming months. Despite this, he said the central bank has enough tools to reach the CPI target in relevant horizon.
  • The 12-month IPCA reading is expected to breach the 9% threshold, its highest level since May 2016. Markets will eye the increase in services inflation. In July, they advanced 0.67% from the previous month and 3% from a year earlier. The BCB made a noteworthy mention to recent indicators showing a worse composition of consumer prices. Particularly, the "surprise in the underlying services inflation and the continuing pressure on industrial goods, causing a rise in core measures."
    • 1300BST/0800ET: Aug. IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 YoY, est. 9.24%, prior 8.59%
    • 1300BST/0800ET: Aug. IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 MoM, est. 0.83%, prior 0.72%
    • 1300BST/0800ET: July Foreign Direct Investment, est. $4.7b, prior $174m, revised $174m
    • 1300BST/0800ET: July Current Account Balance, est. -$500m, prior $2.79b
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