MNI BRIEF: China Warehousing Index Down In October

RBA BOARD REPEATS "NOT RULING ANYTHING IN OR OUT"

MNI: RBA LEAVES CASH RATE AT 4.35%

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY364.5 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1016 Tues; +3.12% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY18.3 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS TUES

MNI: UK BRC OCT BY VALUE SHOP SALES LFL +0.3% YY, TOTAL +0.6% YY

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Austria, UK Auction on Tuesday

MNI: US SEP FACTORY ORDERS -0.5%; EX-TRANSPORT NEW ORDERS +0.1%

EUROPEAN FISCAL: DE 2025 Budget Gap Grows; Political Risk Is Rising

CANADA: Politics Week: Trudeau Facing More Internal Dissent And Departures

CANADA: Politics Week: Trudeau Faces More Pressure To Resign

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

AUSSIE BONDS: AU-US 10-Year Yield Differential Too Wide Vs. FV

AUSSIE BONDS
RegionGlobalBulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

The AU-US 10-year cash yield differential stands at +29bps today, near the upper limit of the +/-30bps range maintained since November 2022.

  • A simple regression of the AU-US 10-year yield differential against the AU-US 1Y3M swap differential over the past year suggests that the current 10-year yield differential is about 11bps above fair value, estimated at +18bps.
  • The 1Y3M differential serves as a proxy for the anticipated relative policy trajectory over the next 12 months.
  • Since mid-September, the AU-US 1Y3M differential has narrowed by approximately 20bps. In contrast, the 10-year yield differential has widened by 5-10bps over the same period.  

 

Keep reading...Show less
112 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

The AU-US 10-year cash yield differential stands at +29bps today, near the upper limit of the +/-30bps range maintained since November 2022.

  • A simple regression of the AU-US 10-year yield differential against the AU-US 1Y3M swap differential over the past year suggests that the current 10-year yield differential is about 11bps above fair value, estimated at +18bps.
  • The 1Y3M differential serves as a proxy for the anticipated relative policy trajectory over the next 12 months.
  • Since mid-September, the AU-US 1Y3M differential has narrowed by approximately 20bps. In contrast, the 10-year yield differential has widened by 5-10bps over the same period.  

 

Keep reading...Show less