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AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper But Richer After Minutes Despite RBA Firmly On Hold

AUSSIE BONDS
RegionGlobalBulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM +5.0 & XM +3.0) are stronger after today’s release of the RBA Minutes for the September meeting. 

  • RBA Governor Bullock said in September that the discussion format had changed to reflect that the Board isn’t ruling “anything in or out” and so it focussed on scenarios that could shift rates in either direction.
  • “Not enough had changed” since the last meeting to warrant altering the level of restrictiveness. Policy “would need to be sufficiently restrictive” until the Board was “confident” that “inflation was moving sustainably” towards target.
  • Cash US tsys are 2-5bps richer, with a steepening bias, in today’s Asia-Pac session after Fed's Musalem stated that the current monetary policy path remains appropriate despite recent jobs data.
  • Cash ACGBs are 2-3bps richer after today’s releases but remain sharply cheaper versus Friday’s close.
  • Swap rates are 10-15bps higher than Friday’s closing levels.
  • The bills strip is richer, with pricing flat to +5.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-3bps softer after the Minutes but remain 10-21bps firmer than Friday’s closing levels for 2025 meetings.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see a speech from RBA's Kent alongside the AOFM’s planned sale of A$500mn of the 3.25% 21 June 2039 bond.    
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ACGBs (YM +5.0 & XM +3.0) are stronger after today’s release of the RBA Minutes for the September meeting. 

  • RBA Governor Bullock said in September that the discussion format had changed to reflect that the Board isn’t ruling “anything in or out” and so it focussed on scenarios that could shift rates in either direction.
  • “Not enough had changed” since the last meeting to warrant altering the level of restrictiveness. Policy “would need to be sufficiently restrictive” until the Board was “confident” that “inflation was moving sustainably” towards target.
  • Cash US tsys are 2-5bps richer, with a steepening bias, in today’s Asia-Pac session after Fed's Musalem stated that the current monetary policy path remains appropriate despite recent jobs data.
  • Cash ACGBs are 2-3bps richer after today’s releases but remain sharply cheaper versus Friday’s close.
  • Swap rates are 10-15bps higher than Friday’s closing levels.
  • The bills strip is richer, with pricing flat to +5.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-3bps softer after the Minutes but remain 10-21bps firmer than Friday’s closing levels for 2025 meetings.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see a speech from RBA's Kent alongside the AOFM’s planned sale of A$500mn of the 3.25% 21 June 2039 bond.