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AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper, Narrow Ranges, Awaiting Powell & US Data

AUSSIE BONDS
RegionGlobalBulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM -4.0 & XM -4.5) are cheaper after dealing in narrow ranges in today’s Sydney session. 

  • (AFR) Falling interest rates could trigger a property price boom that encourages households to take on too much debt, raising the risk of a future market downturn that ravages the economy, the Reserve Bank of Australia has warned. (See link)
  • With the domestic calendar light, local investors have been content to sit on the sideline ahead of a heavy US calendar later today.
  • Cash US tsys are ~0.5bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session.  Today’s US calendar will see Weekly Claims, GDP, PCE, Cap Goods, Durables, and Pending Home Sales data alongside a flurry of Fed speakers: Barr, Cook, Kashkari, Williams and Chairman Powell.
  • Cash ACGBs are 3-4bps cheaper, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +16bps.
  • Swap rates are 3-4bps higher.
  • The bill strip is cheaper, with pricing -2 to -4 across contracts.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 5bps firmer across meetings, with late 2025 leading. A cumulative 15bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar is empty apart from the AOFM’s planned sale of A$500mn of the 2.25% 21 May 2028 bond.
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ACGBs (YM -4.0 & XM -4.5) are cheaper after dealing in narrow ranges in today’s Sydney session. 

  • (AFR) Falling interest rates could trigger a property price boom that encourages households to take on too much debt, raising the risk of a future market downturn that ravages the economy, the Reserve Bank of Australia has warned. (See link)
  • With the domestic calendar light, local investors have been content to sit on the sideline ahead of a heavy US calendar later today.
  • Cash US tsys are ~0.5bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session.  Today’s US calendar will see Weekly Claims, GDP, PCE, Cap Goods, Durables, and Pending Home Sales data alongside a flurry of Fed speakers: Barr, Cook, Kashkari, Williams and Chairman Powell.
  • Cash ACGBs are 3-4bps cheaper, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +16bps.
  • Swap rates are 3-4bps higher.
  • The bill strip is cheaper, with pricing -2 to -4 across contracts.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 5bps firmer across meetings, with late 2025 leading. A cumulative 15bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar is empty apart from the AOFM’s planned sale of A$500mn of the 2.25% 21 May 2028 bond.