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AUSSIE BONDS: Flat Ahead Of Busy Week: RBA & FOMC Decisions & US Election

AUSSIE BONDS
RegionGlobalBulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM flat & XM flat) sit unchanged after dealing in narrow ranges in today’s session. There were no cash US tsy dealings in today’s Asia-Pac session with Japan out for a public holiday. US tsy futures are however stronger, with TYZ4 at 110-12+, +0-11 compared to NY closing levels. 

  • Looking ahead, the US Presidential Election takes place on Tuesday, followed by an unusual Thursday FOMC decision amid an otherwise light US economic calendar.
  • Today’s domestic data drop of MI Inflation and ANZ-Indeed Job Advertisements failed to be market-moving, as expected.
  • Tomorrow, the RBA will announce its policy decision. While the cash rate is unanimously expected to remain at 4.35%, the meeting statement will be closely analysed for any shifts in tone.
  • Cash ACGBs are flat to 2bps cheaper.
  • Swap rates are -1bp lower to 2bps higher, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing flat to +3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing has softened by 2-3bps across the 2025 meetings today. These adjustments bring the pricing for 2025 meetings to just 1-5bps above pre-CPI levels from last Wednesday. Despite this, the market continues to price in a cumulative 3bps of easing by year-end, with a 7% probability assigned to a 25bp rate cut at tomorrow’s meeting.
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ACGBs (YM flat & XM flat) sit unchanged after dealing in narrow ranges in today’s session. There were no cash US tsy dealings in today’s Asia-Pac session with Japan out for a public holiday. US tsy futures are however stronger, with TYZ4 at 110-12+, +0-11 compared to NY closing levels. 

  • Looking ahead, the US Presidential Election takes place on Tuesday, followed by an unusual Thursday FOMC decision amid an otherwise light US economic calendar.
  • Today’s domestic data drop of MI Inflation and ANZ-Indeed Job Advertisements failed to be market-moving, as expected.
  • Tomorrow, the RBA will announce its policy decision. While the cash rate is unanimously expected to remain at 4.35%, the meeting statement will be closely analysed for any shifts in tone.
  • Cash ACGBs are flat to 2bps cheaper.
  • Swap rates are -1bp lower to 2bps higher, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing flat to +3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing has softened by 2-3bps across the 2025 meetings today. These adjustments bring the pricing for 2025 meetings to just 1-5bps above pre-CPI levels from last Wednesday. Despite this, the market continues to price in a cumulative 3bps of easing by year-end, with a 7% probability assigned to a 25bp rate cut at tomorrow’s meeting.