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AUSSIE BONDS: Holding Cheaper After RBA Minutes & Confidence Data

AUSSIE BONDS
RegionGlobalBulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM +4.0 & XM +1.5) are slightly stronger after the release of the RBA Minutes for the September meeting. 

  • The RBA will keep interest rates at a 12-year high until inflation moves sustainably towards its target. Minutes revealed discussions on whether to maintain current restrictive rates or tighten further, citing uncertain economic conditions.
  • While easing was also considered, members agreed on staying vigilant to inflation risks. The RBA highlighted that Australia’s stronger inflation and labour market justify different policies from global trends.
  • Australia’s business conditions rose 3 points from a month earlier to 7 in September.
  • Earlier, consumer confidence jumped in October amid rising expectations that interest rates would fall soon.
  • Cash US tsys are 1-5bps richer, with a steepening bias, in today’s Asia-Pac session after Fed's Musalem stated that the current monetary policy path remains appropriate despite recent jobs data.
  • Cash ACGBs are1bp richer after the data but remain sharply cheaper versus Friday’s close.
  • Swap rates are 12-16bps higher than Friday’s closing levels.
  • The bills strip is slightly richer, with pricing flat to +3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly softer after the Minutes but remains 10-21bps firmer than Friday’s closing levels for 2025 meetings. A cumulative 8bps of easing is priced by year-end.
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ACGBs (YM +4.0 & XM +1.5) are slightly stronger after the release of the RBA Minutes for the September meeting. 

  • The RBA will keep interest rates at a 12-year high until inflation moves sustainably towards its target. Minutes revealed discussions on whether to maintain current restrictive rates or tighten further, citing uncertain economic conditions.
  • While easing was also considered, members agreed on staying vigilant to inflation risks. The RBA highlighted that Australia’s stronger inflation and labour market justify different policies from global trends.
  • Australia’s business conditions rose 3 points from a month earlier to 7 in September.
  • Earlier, consumer confidence jumped in October amid rising expectations that interest rates would fall soon.
  • Cash US tsys are 1-5bps richer, with a steepening bias, in today’s Asia-Pac session after Fed's Musalem stated that the current monetary policy path remains appropriate despite recent jobs data.
  • Cash ACGBs are1bp richer after the data but remain sharply cheaper versus Friday’s close.
  • Swap rates are 12-16bps higher than Friday’s closing levels.
  • The bills strip is slightly richer, with pricing flat to +3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly softer after the Minutes but remains 10-21bps firmer than Friday’s closing levels for 2025 meetings. A cumulative 8bps of easing is priced by year-end.