Free Trial

AUSSIE BONDS: Richer But Off Bests, Q3 CPI Tomorrow

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +2.5) are richer but off Sydney highs on another data/newsflow light session.

  • The move away from session cheaps was aided by cash US tsys, which are ~1bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session. After a slow start to the week, US data and newsflow are set to heat up with ADP Jobs and PCE Deflator data on Wednesday and Non-Farm Payrolls for October on Friday. There is also a heavy corporate earnings docket. Next Tuesday's presidential election will also likely keep some trading accounts on the sidelines.
  • Australian Q3/September CPI data are released tomorrow and will be an important input into the November 5 RBA decision. Headline will be impacted by temporary government energy relief and so the trimmed mean will be the focus. There will also be continued attention on domestically-driven services.
  • Cash ACGBs are 3bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +18bps.
  • Swap rates are 2bps lower, with EFPs slightly wider.
  • The bills strip is slightly stronger across contracts, with pricing flat to +2.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 3bps softer across 2025 meetings. A cumulative 4bps of easing is priced by year-end.
187 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +2.5) are richer but off Sydney highs on another data/newsflow light session.

  • The move away from session cheaps was aided by cash US tsys, which are ~1bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session. After a slow start to the week, US data and newsflow are set to heat up with ADP Jobs and PCE Deflator data on Wednesday and Non-Farm Payrolls for October on Friday. There is also a heavy corporate earnings docket. Next Tuesday's presidential election will also likely keep some trading accounts on the sidelines.
  • Australian Q3/September CPI data are released tomorrow and will be an important input into the November 5 RBA decision. Headline will be impacted by temporary government energy relief and so the trimmed mean will be the focus. There will also be continued attention on domestically-driven services.
  • Cash ACGBs are 3bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +18bps.
  • Swap rates are 2bps lower, with EFPs slightly wider.
  • The bills strip is slightly stronger across contracts, with pricing flat to +2.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 3bps softer across 2025 meetings. A cumulative 4bps of easing is priced by year-end.