MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Bear Trend Intact
Price Signal Summary – AUD Bear Trend Intact
- S&P E-Minis continue to trade below their recent highs. Short-term weakness is - for now - considered corrective and the uptrend remains intact. Price has again traded through support at the 20-day EMA, at 5841.37. A clear breach of this EMA would open 5765.76. Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded lower this week. Yesterday’s sell-off resulted in a breach of support at 4914.00, the Oct 16 low. Note that 4884.06, 38.2% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle, has been pierced.
- The trend theme in GBPUSD is unchanged, it remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of 1.2959, the 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg. The trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish and despite today’s pullback, the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Recent gains have confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. Price has traded through 153.40, 61.8% of the downleg posted off the July 3rd high. A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair traded to a fresh cycle low again, yesterday. The extension reinforces the current downtrend. A key support at 0.6622, the Sep 11 low, has been breached, strengthening a bearish theme.
- The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest climb has resulted in a breach of $2685.6, the Sep 26 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintaining the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s move lower reinforces this theme. A continuation down would expose $65.99, the Oct 1 low, and $64.16, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a clear reversal would refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.70.
- A bearish theme in Bund futures remains intact and the contract traded lower Wednesday. Price has breached a recent support at 132.58, the Oct 22 low. The break, together with yesterday’s sell-off, confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started early October. Gilt futures traded in a volatile manner yesterday. The steep sell-off from Wednesday’s intraday high, reinforces a bearish condition and confirms a resumption of the current downtrend. The contract has traded through the 95.00 handle and sights are set on 94.23.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Remains Below Resistance At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.1040 High Oct 4
- RES 3: 1.0947 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.0885 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0871 High Oct 30
- PRICE: 1.0851 @ 05:56 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: 1.0761 Low Oct 23 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.0746 76.4% retracement of the Apr - Sep bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.0710 Low Jul 2
- SUP 4: 1.0666 Low Jun 26
A strong recovery in EURUSD yesterday appears - for now - to be corrective. The trend condition is bearish following recent weakness. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Resistance to watch is 1.0885, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level would signal scope for a stronger recovery, towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.0947. A resumption of the downtrend would open 1.0746, a Fibonacci retracement.
GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 1.3389 High Oct 1
- RES 3: 1.3274 High Oct 3 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.3175 High Oct 4
- RES 1: 1.3043/3065 High Oct 30 / 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.2956 @ 06:11 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: 1.2908 Low Oct 23
- SUP 2: 1.2890 Low Aug 18
- SUP 3: 1.2846 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.2799 Low Aug 15
The trend theme in GBPUSD is unchanged, it remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of 1.2959, the 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg. An extension lower would open 1.2890, the Aug 18 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3061, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this average is required to signal a reversal.
EURGBP TECHS: Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26
- RES 3: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8453 High Sep 18
- RES 1: 0.8382/8434 50-day EMA / High Oct 3 and reversal trigger
- PRICE: 0.8372 @ 06:38 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: 0.8295 Low Oct 18 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8276 3.382 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
EURGBP traded sharply higher Wednesday and is holding on to its latest gains. Attention is on resistance at 0.8382, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA would strengthen a short-term bullish condition and expose key resistance at 0.8434, the Oct 3 high and a trend reversal point. Note that the primary downtrend remains intact for now. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 082.95, the Oct 18 low.
USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 157.86 High Jul 19
- RES 3: 156.67 76.4% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 155.27 2.00 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 1: 153.88 High Oct 28
- PRICE: 152.19 @ 06:59 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: 151.46 Low Oct 25
- SUP 2: 150.32/148.70 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 145.92 Low Oct 4
- SUP 4: 143.43/141.65 Low Oct 2 / Low Sep 30
The trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish and despite today’s pullback, the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Recent gains have confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. Price has traded through 153.40, 61.8% of the downleg posted off the July 3rd high. The move higher sets the scene for an extension towards 155.27, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is 148.70, the 50-day EMA. The 20-day EMA is at 150.32.
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 169.20 High Jul 24
- RES 3: 168.01 High Jul 26
- RES 2: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 1: 166.69 Intraday high
- PRICE: 165.33 @ 07:08 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: 163.60 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 161.85/161.01 Low Oct 17 / Low Oct 4
- SUP 3: 158.11 Low Sep 30
- SUP 4: 157.05/155.15 Low Sep 18 / 16
A bullish theme in EURJPY remains intact and Wednesday’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. Today’s move lower appears corrective and initial support to watch lies at 163.60, the 20-day EMA. Recent gains suggest scope for a climb towards 167.40, the 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme and open 168.01, the Jul 26 high.
AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 0.6852/6889 High Oct 4 / 3
- RES 3: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 2: 0.6673/6706 20- and 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6622 Low Sep 11
- PRICE: 0.6578 @ 07:37 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: 0.6537 Low Oct 30
- SUP 2: 0.6508 Low Aug 8
- SUP 3: 0.6490 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
- SUP 4: 0.6472 Low Aug 6
A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair traded to a fresh cycle low again, yesterday. The extension reinforces the current downtrend. A key support at 0.6622, the Sep 11 low, has been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. Note too that the pair has also cleared 0.6576, 61.8% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg. A continuation lower would open 0.6490, the 76.4% retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6622, the Sep 11 low.
USDCAD TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance
- RES 4: 1.4131 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4000 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3946 High Aug 5 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 1.3941 High Oct 30
- PRICE: 1.3919 @ 07:52 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: 1.3838/3785 Low Oct 25 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3701 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3611 Low Oct 8
- SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Oct 7
The USDCAD trend outlook remains bullish and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Price has recently cleared 1.3822, 76.4% of the Aug 5 - Sep 25 bear leg. The breach reinforces a bullish theme and sights are on 1.3946, the Aug 5 high and the next key hurdle for bulls. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3785, the 20-day EMA. The uptrend is overbought, a pullback would allow this condition to unwind.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Bear Leg Extends
- RES 4: 134.25 High Oct 16
- RES 3: 133.54 High Oct 24 and key resistance
- RES 2: 133.33 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 132.65 Low Sep 2 and a recent breakout point
- PRICE: 131.61 @ 08:02 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: 131.36 Intraday low
- SUP 2 131.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 130.80 1.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
- SUP 4: 129.99 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
A bearish theme in Bund futures remains intact and the contract traded lower Wednesday. Price has breached a recent support at 132.58, the Oct 22 low. The break, together with yesterday’s sell-off, confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started early October and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Sights are on the 131.00 handle next, the Jul 26 low. On the upside, initial key resistance has been defined at 132.65, the Sep 2 low.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Bear Cycle Extension
- RES 4: 119.620 High Oct 18
- RES 3: 119.330 High Oct 24
- RES 2: 119.116 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 118.580 Low Sep 3 and a recent breakout level
- PRICE: 118.060 @ 08:04 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: 117.850 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 117.778 1.764 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
- SUP 3: 117.570 2.000 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
- SUP 4: 117.362 2.236 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
A sharp sell-off in Bobl futures yesterday highlights a strong bearish condition and the move down confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that started Oct 1. The move down paves the way for an extension lower near-term and sights are on 117.778, a Fibonacci extension point. Initial firm resistance is seen at 118.580, the Sep 3 low and a recent breakout level. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 107.225 High Oct 3
- RES 3: 107.110 High Oct 4
- RES 2: 107.070 High Oct 24 and the near-term bull trigger
- RES 1: 106.866 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 106.560 @ 08:06 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: 106.480 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 106.400 Round number support
- SUP 3: 106.315 1.000 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.137 1.1236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
A bearish condition in Schatz futures remains intact. Yesterday’s sharp sell-off reinforces current conditions and the move down resulted in a break of support at 106.580, the Oct 10 low. This confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started early October and signals scope for a continuation lower near-term. Sights are on the 106.400 handle next. Initial firm resistance is seen at 106.866, the 20-day EMA.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Volatile And Bearish
- RES 4: 97.23 High Oct 22
- RES 3: 96.76 20-day EMA
- RES 2: 96.65 High Oct 30
- RES 1: 95.83 Low Oct 10
- PRICE: 94.92 @ Close Oct 30
- SUP 1: 94.33 Low Oct 30
- SUP 2: 94.23 1.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 93.75 1.764 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 4: 92.99 2.00 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
Gilt futures traded in a volatile manner yesterday. The steep sell-off from Wednesday’s intraday high, reinforces a bearish condition and confirms a resumption of the current downtrend. The contract has traded through the 95.00 handle and sights are set on 94.23, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, Wednesday’s intraday high of 96.65, is seen as a key short-term resistance where a break is required to highlight a possible short-term base.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Reversal Threat
- RES 4: 123.12 3.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 122.78 3.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 121.53/122.62 High Oct 25 / 1 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 119.97 Low Oct 11 and a recent breakout level
- PRICE: 119.39 @ 08:00 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: 119.21 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 118.64 50.0% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 118.16 Low Sep 2 Low Jul 26
- SUP 4: 117.70 50.0% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
BTP futures traded sharply lower Wednesday and in the process breached support at 119.97, the Oct 11 low. The break strengthens a bearish threat and highlights a possible reversal. Today’s move lower reinforces a bear theme. The move down has exposed 118.64, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 121.53, the Oct 25 high, where a break is required to cancel the bearish threat.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Breaches Support
- RES 4: 5200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 5138.24 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 5015.00/5106.00 High Oct 21 / High Sep 30 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 4961.13 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 4878.00 @ 06:30 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: 4858.00 Low Sep 18
- SUP 2: 4815.50 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 4757.00 Low Sep 6 / 10 and key support
- SUP 4: 4746.94 .61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded lower this week. Yesterday’s sell-off resulted in a breach of support at 4914.00, the Oct 16 low. Note that 4884.06, 38.2% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle, has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for an extension towards 4815.50, the 50.0% retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 5015.00, the Oct 29 high, where a break is required to highlight a reversal.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Trades Through The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 6012.75 1.00 projection of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 6000.00 Psychological handle
- RES 2: 5961.00 1.00 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 5927.25 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5808.50 @ 07:18 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: 5801.00/5765.76 Low Oct 23 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5724.00 Low Oct 2
- SUP 3: 5675.25 Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: 5658.00 Low Sep 13
S&P E-Minis continue to trade below their recent highs. Short-term weakness is - for now - considered corrective and the uptrend remains intact. Price has again traded through support at the 20-day EMA, at 5841.37. A clear breach of this EMA would open 5765.76, the 50-day EMA. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on 5961.00, a Fibonacci projection. The bull trigger is at 5927.25, the Oct 17 high.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (F5) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: $84.90 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $82.40 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $80.55/91 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $76.08 - High Oct 24
- PRICE: $72.53 @ 07:07 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: $70.28 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $69.68/68.01 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $66.38 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.90 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
A bearish tone in Brent futures remains intact and this week’s move lower reinforces this theme. A continuation down would expose support at $69.68, the Oct 1 low, and $68.01, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher is required to instead refocus attention on the key resistance at $80.55, the Oct 7 high. Clearance of this level resumes the recent uptrend. Initial resistance is at $76.08, the Oct 24 high.
WTI TECHS: (Z4) Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $80.95 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $78.81 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $75.45/77.70 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $72.34 - High Oct 24
- PRICE: $68.93 @ 07:13 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: $66.72 - Low Oct 28
- SUP 2: $65.99/64.16 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $63.91 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s move lower reinforces this theme. A continuation down would expose $65.99, the Oct 1 low, and $64.16, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a clear reversal would refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.70, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this level would resume to the recent uptrend. Initial resistance is at $72.34, the Oct 24 high.
GOLD TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact
- RES 4: $2832.8 - 3.764 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: $2814.7- 3.618 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 2: $2800.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $2790.1 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $2782.0 @ 07:21 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: $2739.9 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $2703.5 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2673.3 - Low Oct 17
- SUP 4: $2625.8 - 50-day EMA
The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest climb has resulted in a breach of $2685.6, the Sep 26 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintaining the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the $2800.0 handle next as the yellow metal appreciates. Firm support is $2703.5, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would highlight a short-term top.
SILVER TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure
- RES 4: $36.050 - 2.236 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 3: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 2: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 1: $34.903 - High Oct 23
- PRICE: $33.690@ 07:57 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: $32.963 - High Oct 4
- SUP 2: $32.720/31.406 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: $29.858- Trendline support drawn from the Aug 8 low
- SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and the Oct 18 rally plus last week’s initial extension, reinforce the current trend set-up and confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Short-term weakness is considered corrective. Scope is seen for a climb towards $35.167, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend for now. Initial firm support lies at $32.820, the 20-day EMA.