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AUSSIE BONDS: Richer, Light Local Calendar, BoJ Policy Decision Due

AUSSIE BONDS
RegionGlobalBulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +2.0) are slightly stronger and near Sydney session highs. However, dealings have been light with ranges narrow on a data-light day. 

  • The key focus today is on the BoJ, who is due to deliver a policy decision. Consensus unanimously expects no change to the 0.25% target rate at this meeting. However, the markets will be closely watching for any signals regarding future monetary policy normalisation.
  • Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest twist-steepening. Yesterday, the US 2-year yield fell to 3.58%, the richest since mid-September 2022, while the curve steepened to 13bps, the most positive since early June 2022.
  • “Australia’s ‘millennial’ households — those aged 29-43 years — have experienced the largest decline in their real average disposable incomes over the past two years, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said, downgrading estimates for the country’s broader economic growth.” (per BBG)
  • Cash ACGBs are2-3bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +22bps.
  • Swap rates are 2-3bps lower.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing +1 to +4.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-5bps softer across 2025 meetings. A cumulative 16bps of easing is priced by year-end.
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ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +2.0) are slightly stronger and near Sydney session highs. However, dealings have been light with ranges narrow on a data-light day. 

  • The key focus today is on the BoJ, who is due to deliver a policy decision. Consensus unanimously expects no change to the 0.25% target rate at this meeting. However, the markets will be closely watching for any signals regarding future monetary policy normalisation.
  • Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest twist-steepening. Yesterday, the US 2-year yield fell to 3.58%, the richest since mid-September 2022, while the curve steepened to 13bps, the most positive since early June 2022.
  • “Australia’s ‘millennial’ households — those aged 29-43 years — have experienced the largest decline in their real average disposable incomes over the past two years, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said, downgrading estimates for the country’s broader economic growth.” (per BBG)
  • Cash ACGBs are2-3bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +22bps.
  • Swap rates are 2-3bps lower.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing +1 to +4.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-5bps softer across 2025 meetings. A cumulative 16bps of easing is priced by year-end.