MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, December 13

MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Curb Any Yuan Overshot : PBOC Zou

MNI: GERMANY OCT EXPORTS -2.8% M/M (VS FCST -2.6%)

CHINA YTD NEW LOANS CNY17.1 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY17.5 TRLN: PBOC

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY14.2 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1876 Fri; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI: EUROZONE OCT IP +0% M/M, -1.2% Y/Y

MNI: SPAIN NOV HICP +0% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI: FRANCE NOV HICP -0.1% M/M, +1.7% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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AUSSIE BONDS: Sharply Cheaper As Local Market Plays Catch-Up To US NFP

AUSSIE BONDS
RegionGlobalBulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM +1.0 & XM -0.5) are slightly mixed despite US tsys extending Friday’s post-payrolls sell-off. Cash US tsys bear-flattened, with yields 5-8bps higher. 

  • The probability of a 25bp cut at the November FOMC policy meeting stood at 84%.
  • We have limited US data today, with the focus on the minutes for the September FOMC tomorrow, CPI on Thursday and PPI on Friday. Note, that Friday also sees the start of the latest earnings cycle with Bank of NY Mellon, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and Blackrock announcing.
  • The NASDAQ and S&P500 dropped ~1%. The DXY hit a high of 102.620, the best since August 15.
  • Cash ACGBs are14-17bps cheaper than Friday’s closing levels. The AU-US 10-year yield differential is at +19bps. The local market was closed for a public holiday yesterday.
  • Swap rates are 13-17bps higher than Friday’s closing levels.
  • The bills strip is little changed.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 11-24bps firmer than Friday’s closing levels for 2025 meetings. A cumulative 8bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Today, the local calendar will see Consumer and Business Confidence alongside RBA Minutes of the Sept. Policy Meeting.
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ACGBs (YM +1.0 & XM -0.5) are slightly mixed despite US tsys extending Friday’s post-payrolls sell-off. Cash US tsys bear-flattened, with yields 5-8bps higher. 

  • The probability of a 25bp cut at the November FOMC policy meeting stood at 84%.
  • We have limited US data today, with the focus on the minutes for the September FOMC tomorrow, CPI on Thursday and PPI on Friday. Note, that Friday also sees the start of the latest earnings cycle with Bank of NY Mellon, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and Blackrock announcing.
  • The NASDAQ and S&P500 dropped ~1%. The DXY hit a high of 102.620, the best since August 15.
  • Cash ACGBs are14-17bps cheaper than Friday’s closing levels. The AU-US 10-year yield differential is at +19bps. The local market was closed for a public holiday yesterday.
  • Swap rates are 13-17bps higher than Friday’s closing levels.
  • The bills strip is little changed.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 11-24bps firmer than Friday’s closing levels for 2025 meetings. A cumulative 8bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Today, the local calendar will see Consumer and Business Confidence alongside RBA Minutes of the Sept. Policy Meeting.