MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, October 31

RPT-MNI INTERVIEW: China Stimulus To Boost Imports - WTO Econ

MNI BRIEF: China Steel PMI Remains Above 50 In October

RPT-MNI INTERVIEW: China Stimulus To Boost Imports - WTO Econ

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MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1250 Thurs; +2.75% Y/Y

MNI: FRANCE OCT HICP +0.3% M/M, +1.5% Y/Y

MNI: FRANCE SEP PPI -0.1% M/M, -7% Y/Y

MNI: GERMANY SEP IMPORT PRICE INDEX -0.4% M/M; -1.3% Y/Y

EUROPEAN FISCAL: DE 2025 Budget Gap Grows; Political Risk Is Rising

CANADA: Politics Week: Trudeau Facing More Internal Dissent And Departures

CANADA: Politics Week: Trudeau Faces More Pressure To Resign

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AUSSIE BONDS: Slightly Cheaper, Limited Reaction To Q3 CPI, Focus On US Data

AUSSIE BONDS
RegionGlobalBulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM -1.0 & XM -1.5) are weaker and little changed after today’s Q3/September CPI release.

  • Q3 trimmed mean CPI printed in line with expectations at 0.8% q/q and 3.5% y/y after an upwardly revised Q2 at 0.9% and 4.0%. This is consistent with the RBA’s Q4 forecast but the tick-up in services inflation is likely to mean the Board remains cautious and stays on hold over the rest of 2024.
  • Problematically, services rose 1.1% q/q and 4.6% y/y up from Q2’s 1.0% and 4.5%, in line with Q4 2023, driven by rents, insurance and child care. Core services were also strong rising 1.3% q/q and 4.1% y/y after 1.0% and 4.1% y/y.
  • Cash US tsys are little changed in today’s Asia-Pac session. The focus is now on today's ADP employment data, GDP and Pending Home Sales.
  • Cash ACGBs are 1bp cheaper on the day. The AU-US 10-year yield differential is at +21bps.
  • Swap rates are 1bp lower on the day.
  • The bills strip is weaker, with pricing -1 to -3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-3bps firmer on the day. A cumulative 3bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Retail Sales, Terms of Trade, Building Approvals and Private Sector Credit data.
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ACGBs (YM -1.0 & XM -1.5) are weaker and little changed after today’s Q3/September CPI release.

  • Q3 trimmed mean CPI printed in line with expectations at 0.8% q/q and 3.5% y/y after an upwardly revised Q2 at 0.9% and 4.0%. This is consistent with the RBA’s Q4 forecast but the tick-up in services inflation is likely to mean the Board remains cautious and stays on hold over the rest of 2024.
  • Problematically, services rose 1.1% q/q and 4.6% y/y up from Q2’s 1.0% and 4.5%, in line with Q4 2023, driven by rents, insurance and child care. Core services were also strong rising 1.3% q/q and 4.1% y/y after 1.0% and 4.1% y/y.
  • Cash US tsys are little changed in today’s Asia-Pac session. The focus is now on today's ADP employment data, GDP and Pending Home Sales.
  • Cash ACGBs are 1bp cheaper on the day. The AU-US 10-year yield differential is at +21bps.
  • Swap rates are 1bp lower on the day.
  • The bills strip is weaker, with pricing -1 to -3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-3bps firmer on the day. A cumulative 3bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Retail Sales, Terms of Trade, Building Approvals and Private Sector Credit data.