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AUSSIE BONDS: Slightly Mixed After Conflicting US Data & Fedspeak

AUSSIE BONDS
RegionGlobalBulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM flat & XM -1.5) are slightly mixed after upside surprises in US CPI and jobless claims, and mixed Fedspeak imparted conflicting signals for US tsys. 

  • The 2-year yield closed 6bps lower at 3.96%. Meanwhile, the 10-year was fractionally lower at 4.06% after spiking to 4.12% on the inflation beat.
  • Atlanta Fed Bostic said the door is open to skip a rate cut in November. NY Fed Williams said policymakers should reduce rates to a more neutral level ‘over time’.
  • The US$22bn 30-year auction attracted strong demand and cleared 1.5bps through the prevailing mids with the recent backup in yield attracting investors.
  • Today's US calendar will see PPI and UofM inflation expectations.
  • The cash ACGB curve has twist-steepened, with yields -1bp to +1bp. The AU-US 10-year yield differential is at +18bps.
  • Swap rates are flat to 2bp lower.
  • The bills strip is +1 across contracts.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-2bps softer across 2025 meetings. A cumulative 7bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Today, the local calendar is empty apart from the AOFM’s planned sale of A$1.0bn of the 2.75% 21 November 2028 bond.  
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ACGBs (YM flat & XM -1.5) are slightly mixed after upside surprises in US CPI and jobless claims, and mixed Fedspeak imparted conflicting signals for US tsys. 

  • The 2-year yield closed 6bps lower at 3.96%. Meanwhile, the 10-year was fractionally lower at 4.06% after spiking to 4.12% on the inflation beat.
  • Atlanta Fed Bostic said the door is open to skip a rate cut in November. NY Fed Williams said policymakers should reduce rates to a more neutral level ‘over time’.
  • The US$22bn 30-year auction attracted strong demand and cleared 1.5bps through the prevailing mids with the recent backup in yield attracting investors.
  • Today's US calendar will see PPI and UofM inflation expectations.
  • The cash ACGB curve has twist-steepened, with yields -1bp to +1bp. The AU-US 10-year yield differential is at +18bps.
  • Swap rates are flat to 2bp lower.
  • The bills strip is +1 across contracts.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-2bps softer across 2025 meetings. A cumulative 7bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Today, the local calendar is empty apart from the AOFM’s planned sale of A$1.0bn of the 2.75% 21 November 2028 bond.