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AUSSIE BONDS: Slightly Mixed After Today’s Domestic Data Drop, Retail Sales Beat

AUSSIE BONDS
RegionGlobalBulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM +1.0 & XM -1.5) are slightly mixed after today’s domestic data drop.

  • Retail sales rose 0.7% m/m (estimate +0.4%) in August versus a revised +0.1% in July.
  • “Australian retail sales rose by more than expected in August as tax cuts and warmer weather encouraged households to spend, reinforcing the case for interest rates to remain on hold for the time being.” (per BBG)
  • Building approvals fell 6.1% m/m (estimate -4.3%) in August versus a revised +11.0% in July.
  • Judo Bank PMI Mfg for September fell to 46.7 from 48.5 in August, while Australia’s home values rose 0.5% m/m (+6.7% y/y) in September, according to the CoreLogic Home Value Index report.
  • Cash US tsys are 1-2bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s Powell-induced sell-off.
  • Cash ACGBs are slightly cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +21bps.
  • Swap rates are -1bp to +1bp with the 3s10s curve flatter.
  • The bills strip is cheaper with pricing -2 to -4 across contracts.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-4bps firmer across 2025 meetings. A cumulative 13bps of easing is priced by year-end.
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ACGBs (YM +1.0 & XM -1.5) are slightly mixed after today’s domestic data drop.

  • Retail sales rose 0.7% m/m (estimate +0.4%) in August versus a revised +0.1% in July.
  • “Australian retail sales rose by more than expected in August as tax cuts and warmer weather encouraged households to spend, reinforcing the case for interest rates to remain on hold for the time being.” (per BBG)
  • Building approvals fell 6.1% m/m (estimate -4.3%) in August versus a revised +11.0% in July.
  • Judo Bank PMI Mfg for September fell to 46.7 from 48.5 in August, while Australia’s home values rose 0.5% m/m (+6.7% y/y) in September, according to the CoreLogic Home Value Index report.
  • Cash US tsys are 1-2bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s Powell-induced sell-off.
  • Cash ACGBs are slightly cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +21bps.
  • Swap rates are -1bp to +1bp with the 3s10s curve flatter.
  • The bills strip is cheaper with pricing -2 to -4 across contracts.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-4bps firmer across 2025 meetings. A cumulative 13bps of easing is priced by year-end.