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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUD
- Hot inflation data in Australia prompted a hawkish repricing for RBA-dated OIS, with ~45% odds of a 25bp hike now showing for August and some analysts adjusting their forecasts accordingly. RBA Kent’s comments overnight might suggest the central bank is happy with the current level of restrictive policy, however, in either scenario, the higher for longer thesis is supporting AUD on Wednesday.
- The rates angle could provide the foundation for further Aussie upside and EURAUD and AUDNZD charts provide interesting levels for potential breakout opportunities.
- For AUDNZD, the cross has surged 0.70% and printed a fresh one-month high of 1.0940 in the process. We note that the AU-NZ 2yr swap is 14bps higher at -57bps and is now at the tightest levels since Sept 2022. AUDNZD exponential moving average indicators have turned bullish, providing scope for a move towards downtrend resistance at 1.0991 and then 1.1056 and 1.1088, highs from H1 2023.
- EURAUD had been consolidating its move below pivot support at 1.6136, and the data has prompted a strong selloff to reach a fresh one year low at 1.5998. Today’s move signals scope for an extension lower towards channel support and a cluster of lows around 1.5850, a level that could certainly come into play as markets prepare for this weekend’s first round of the legislative election in France.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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