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AUSTRALIA DATA: Commodity Prices Weighing On Westpac Leading Index

AUSTRALIA DATA
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The Westpac leading index fell 0.05% m/m in August, the second straight monthly decline, after -0.03%. This left the 6-month average annualised measure back in negative territory at -0.27%, the lowest since May, after +0.04% in July, but its improvement since mid-2023 has been maintained. This series leads detrended growth by around 6 months and is signalling soft growth into the first quarter of next year. Falling commodity prices are the main driver of the fall in the August lead indicator but unemployment expectations and the yield spread also contributed, while equities, dwelling approvals and hours worked made positive contributions. 

Australia Westpac Leading Indicator 6m/6m annualised %

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The Westpac leading index fell 0.05% m/m in August, the second straight monthly decline, after -0.03%. This left the 6-month average annualised measure back in negative territory at -0.27%, the lowest since May, after +0.04% in July, but its improvement since mid-2023 has been maintained. This series leads detrended growth by around 6 months and is signalling soft growth into the first quarter of next year. Falling commodity prices are the main driver of the fall in the August lead indicator but unemployment expectations and the yield spread also contributed, while equities, dwelling approvals and hours worked made positive contributions. 

Australia Westpac Leading Indicator 6m/6m annualised %

Keep reading...Show less