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AUSTRALIA DATA: Consumer Inflation Expectations Stuck At 2024 Average

AUSTRALIA DATA
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Melbourne Institute consumer inflation expectations eased 0.1pp in September to 4.4% y/y, in line with the series average. Apart from the recent low of 4.1% in May, the series has been moving around 4.4% through 2024 and is struggling to move closer to 4%, despite petrol prices trending lower since April and July headline CPI moderating to 3.5% y/y. While there continues to be a lot of coverage of cost-of-living pressures in the press, Westpac noted that consumers were less concerned about inflation in September. MI consumer inflation expectations can lead headline CPI inflation and in 2019 it averaged around 3.6%. A move below 4% in the series would be welcomed to help determine if inflation has been contained. 

Australia CPI vs MI consumer inflation expectations y/y%

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Melbourne Institute consumer inflation expectations eased 0.1pp in September to 4.4% y/y, in line with the series average. Apart from the recent low of 4.1% in May, the series has been moving around 4.4% through 2024 and is struggling to move closer to 4%, despite petrol prices trending lower since April and July headline CPI moderating to 3.5% y/y. While there continues to be a lot of coverage of cost-of-living pressures in the press, Westpac noted that consumers were less concerned about inflation in September. MI consumer inflation expectations can lead headline CPI inflation and in 2019 it averaged around 3.6%. A move below 4% in the series would be welcomed to help determine if inflation has been contained. 

Australia CPI vs MI consumer inflation expectations y/y%

Keep reading...Show less