AUSTRALIA DATA: Consumers Switching Concerns To Growth/Jobs From Inflation/Rates

Consumer confidence remains depressed but is moderately higher than the lows of late 2022/early 2023. Westpac’s measure fell 0.5% m/m in September to 84.6 but in line with recent readings. There had not been an RBA meeting since the August data but Governor Bullock’s speech last week, where she reiterated that it was too early to discuss rate cuts, was widely covered in the press. So too were the soft Q2 GDP data.

• With the RBA leaving rates at 4.35%, where they have been since November, and inflation gradually easing, consumers have become more concerned about the economic outlook with these indices deteriorating and spilling over into unemployment fears with that index rising 3.7% in September and now above the historical average.
• Answers to the news recall question were still all negative with some improvement on inflation and rates but “economy”, “budget & taxation” and “employment” deteriorating around 10pp to 70-80% unfavourable.
• Westpac reports that “just under half” of respondents expect mortgage rates to increase over the coming year, “down from over two thirds in July”.
• Family finances compared to a year ago improved in September and are now up 13.1% since July with the year-ahead outlook up 5.3% helped by lower inflation and tax cuts.
• The “time to buy a major household item” was unchanged at the low level of 82.6, 33.5% below the historical average.
• Housing indicators were varied across states with the 6.6% rise in “time to buy a dwelling index” driven by NSW and Victoria. House price expectations fell 4.6% again due to NSW and Victoria. 

Australia Westpac consumer confidence