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AUSTRALIA DATA: Inflation Expectations Below 4%

AUSTRALIA DATA
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Australian Melbourne Institute consumer inflation expectations are heading in the right direction with the November reading moderating 0.2pp to 3.8%, the lowest since the pandemic-impacted February 2021 and they were trending higher at that point. After struggling to break below 4%, expectations now appear to be trending lower. They peaked at 6.7% in June 2022, the month after the first hike this cycle, and started 2024 at 4.5%. Headline inflation at 2.8% in Q3, despite its temporary nature, and lower petrol prices plus the RBA’s resoluteness have likely helped to bring inflation expectations down below 4%. 

Australia CPI y/y% vs MI consumer inflation expectations y/y%

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Australian Melbourne Institute consumer inflation expectations are heading in the right direction with the November reading moderating 0.2pp to 3.8%, the lowest since the pandemic-impacted February 2021 and they were trending higher at that point. After struggling to break below 4%, expectations now appear to be trending lower. They peaked at 6.7% in June 2022, the month after the first hike this cycle, and started 2024 at 4.5%. Headline inflation at 2.8% in Q3, despite its temporary nature, and lower petrol prices plus the RBA’s resoluteness have likely helped to bring inflation expectations down below 4%. 

Australia CPI y/y% vs MI consumer inflation expectations y/y%

Keep reading...Show less