November 14, 2024 01:36 GMT
AUSTRALIA DATA: Trends Show Labour Market Remains Tight
AUSTRALIA DATA
It is not surprising that after five consecutive months of more than 30k new jobs, that there would be payback as some point, especially in a month that includes school holidays. Employment in October printed below expectations at +15.9k with September revised down to 61.3k but the unemployment rate was steady at 4.1%. The details continue to show a tight labour market with some indicators stabilising, consistent with the RBA on hold.
Australia employment vs hours worked y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
- The unemployment rate printed at 4.1% for the third straight month and remains below the RBA’s 4.3% forecast for Q4 2024.
- The stable unemployment, including for under 25s, and underemployment rates plus record high employment/population, solid 3-month momentum in both full-time (FT) and part-time (PT) employment & hours worked point to continued labour market tightness. In the year to October, 388.9k new jobs were created up from 379.6k YTD 2023.
- Again employment didn’t keep up with the rise in the labour force at 15.9k vs 24.2k. This trend has driven the number of unemployed higher which is now up 66.5k on a year ago but down from September’s 90.6k.
- Employment growth slowed to 2.7% y/y from 3.1% but there were unfavourable base effects around September/October 2023.
- FT jobs rose 9.7k after 48.8k to be up 2.4% y/y and PT +6.2k after 12.5k to be +3.4% y/y. PT employment appears to be slowing but momentum remains robust.
- Working-age population growth appears to have stabilised around 2.5% y/y after 3% in Q3 2023, while the labour force rose 3.1% y/y in October.
Australia employment full-time vs part-time y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
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