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Awaiting payrolls amid risk-off concerns

BONDS

Core fixed income is higher on the day, but still off the spikes seen overnight. Reports of Russian shelling a building on the perimeter of the largest nuclear power station in Europe (with a fire ensuing) has seen risk assets under pressure and core FI catch a bid. We are off the overnight highs (when it wasn't clear the fire was contained to a perimeter building).

  • The February US employment report is the highlight for the session ahead. Despite the geopolitical tensions, labour market data is still very important for markets here. Strength is seen after Omircron disruption in January. We see potential asymmetric upside risks to March pricing of hikes but more balanced risks to the broader rate path. See the full MNI preview here.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-17+ today at 128-02 with 10y UST yields down -5.0bp at 1.792% and 2y yields down -2.6bp at 1.506%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.57 today at 169.77 with 10y Bund yields down -2.8bp at -0.12% and Schatz yields down -5.4bp at -0.695%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.42 today at 124.83 with 10y yields down -1.8bp at 1.280% and 2y yields up 0.6bp at 1.122%.

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