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Awaiting Wages Data This Week

AUSSIE BONDS

Aussie rates futures open stronger YM +3.0 and XM +5.5, extending on post-Sydney gains, after U.S. Tsys closed modestly firmer on Friday. Cash ACGBs are 2-5bp lower in yield led by the 10 to 20-year zone.

  • The 3/10year cash curve is -3bp at ~29bp and the AU-US 10-year yield differential is 1bp higher at -5bp.
  • Mirroring bonds, swaps rates open 2-6bp lower with the 3s10s curve flattening 4bp.
  • June bills are 2bp stronger with the strip flat to +3 through the reds.
  • RBA-dated OIS opens around Friday levels with March meeting RBA-dated OIS showing an 88% chance of a 25bp hike. Terminal rate expectations remain at ~4.17%, holding last week’s retrace from a high of 4.22%.
  • Locally, we will see release of the RBA Meeting Minutes on Tuesday, Q4 WPI on Wednesday and Q4 Capex on Thursday. With both the Statement on Monetary policy and Governor Lowe’s testimonies to parliament coming after the RBA rate decision, the market will be focused on wages given its closer links to services inflation, an increasing concern for the RBA following the higher-than-expected Q4 CPI print.
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