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AUD: Back Above 0.6400, Amid Broad USD Weakness, RBA Governor Before Parliament

AUD

AUD/USD tracks near 0.6400/05 in early Friday dealings, the currency up close to 1% for Thursday's session. Broader USD sentiment faltered as the session unfolded, the BBDXY off 0.70%, the DXY 0.80%. The BBDXY index is back to mid Dec levels from last year. The AUD and NZD were close to the top G10 performers, although JPY was the best G10 performer. 

  • For AUD/USD technicals, we have rallied to a new recovery high and narrowing the gap with key resistance ahead at 0.6414 - marking both the 100-dma as well as the 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg. The Dec 9 high is 0.6471. The 50-day EMA undercuts as support, crossing at 0.6308.
  • In the cross asset space, we had lower US Tsy yields as a USD headwind, although moves weren't dramatic, with benchmark yields off around 2-3bps towards the back end of the curve. US Tsy Sec Bessent suggested the terming out of US debt is still "a long way off". Bessent also stated sanctions relief for Russia may eventuate, in signs of some optimism around a Ukraine peace deal.
  • US equity markets were lower, Atlanta Fed President Bostic cited high uncertainty over Trump administration policy changes, which helped trigger heavy selling in bank stocks. The SPX finished down a modest 0.43%. AUD/JPY is under 96.00, but up from earlier Thursday lows of 95.33.
  • USD/CNH also slumped back under 7.2400, amid carry over from Trump's comments yesterday that a trade deal was possible with China. This likely aided A$ sentiment as well.
  • In the commodity space, the Bloomberg metals index rose 1.28%, the aggregate index gained a more modest 0.15%. Copper was up 1.09%, while active iron ore is close to $109/ton.
  • Locally today, we have preliminary PMI reads for Feb, while RBA Governor Bullock will appear before parliament. 
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AUD/USD tracks near 0.6400/05 in early Friday dealings, the currency up close to 1% for Thursday's session. Broader USD sentiment faltered as the session unfolded, the BBDXY off 0.70%, the DXY 0.80%. The BBDXY index is back to mid Dec levels from last year. The AUD and NZD were close to the top G10 performers, although JPY was the best G10 performer. 

  • For AUD/USD technicals, we have rallied to a new recovery high and narrowing the gap with key resistance ahead at 0.6414 - marking both the 100-dma as well as the 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg. The Dec 9 high is 0.6471. The 50-day EMA undercuts as support, crossing at 0.6308.
  • In the cross asset space, we had lower US Tsy yields as a USD headwind, although moves weren't dramatic, with benchmark yields off around 2-3bps towards the back end of the curve. US Tsy Sec Bessent suggested the terming out of US debt is still "a long way off". Bessent also stated sanctions relief for Russia may eventuate, in signs of some optimism around a Ukraine peace deal.
  • US equity markets were lower, Atlanta Fed President Bostic cited high uncertainty over Trump administration policy changes, which helped trigger heavy selling in bank stocks. The SPX finished down a modest 0.43%. AUD/JPY is under 96.00, but up from earlier Thursday lows of 95.33.
  • USD/CNH also slumped back under 7.2400, amid carry over from Trump's comments yesterday that a trade deal was possible with China. This likely aided A$ sentiment as well.
  • In the commodity space, the Bloomberg metals index rose 1.28%, the aggregate index gained a more modest 0.15%. Copper was up 1.09%, while active iron ore is close to $109/ton.
  • Locally today, we have preliminary PMI reads for Feb, while RBA Governor Bullock will appear before parliament.