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Back Above $1.17, But Trump COVID Symptoms to be Watched
Risk off prevailed through the main part of the Asian session as market reacted to the initial headlines concerning close Trump aide Hope Hicks testing positive for COVID-19, prompting POTUS and FLOTUS to take tests. EUR/USD eased through Thursday's NY low of $1.1722 before finding support around $1.1715 but was shoved down to $1.1696 as Trump tweeted that both he and the first lady had tested positive for the virus. Rate recovered on a statement from Trump's physician that although Trump had tested positive no symptoms were currently evident. Rate bounced back to $1.1732, currently around $1.1725. Trump's condition will be watched during the election process although Trump has said that he will fulfil obligations as regards debates etc, though this will depend on symptoms. Data focus this morning on flash EZ CPI at 1000BST, though seen as the curtain raiser ahead of US Employment Report at 1330BST(NFP median 868k, though this week's data has edged some calls higher). US Durable Goods, Factory Orders and UofM final follow at 1500BST. ECB Holzman, de Guindos and de Cos due to speak today. Fed speakers include Harker(hawk). Support now seen at the mentioned low of $1.1696 ahead of Thursday low at $1.1685, and the 61.8% and 76.4% retrace levels at $1.1672 and $1.1649 of the recovery from $1.1612 to $1.1770. Resistance seen into $21.1750 ahead of $1.1770, stronger into $1.1800. Option expiries of note for today's NY cut include $1.1700(E1.3bln), $1.1750(E2.0bln) and $1.1800(E1.7bln).
MNI Techs: EURUSD is lower this morning. A bearish theme remains intact despite the recent corrective climb. This follows recent weakness that has seen the 50-day EMA and support at 1.1738, Sep 17 low cleared. Furthermore, a trendline break in September, drawn off the May 14 low and a head and shoulders reversal confirmation highlight bearish sentiment. The bear trigger is at 1.1612 25 low. Trendline resistance intersects at 1.1783.
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