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Back Below 200-Day MA, As Commodity FX Underperforms

NZD

NZD/USD is tracking just above 0.6140 in early trade today. This is up modestly from post Asia-session lows on Friday, which came in around the 0.6125/30 region. The Kiwi only slightly outperformed the AUD for the session, losing 0.57%, to be the second worst performer in the G10 space. The USD was supported by a recovery in US yields, post better than expected PMI data, although US dollar indices were volatile, largely unable to hold onto gains.

  • The data calendar is quiet until Wednesday when Mar trade figures are due. Note also NZ markets, along with Australia's, are closed tomorrow.
  • NZD/USD is sub the simple 200-day MA (0.6162), while the 2023 low at 0.6085 from Mar 8 is a potential support point on the downside. For bulls we likely need to retake the 20-day EMA at 0.6215 to stabilize the outlook.
  • The NZD saw negative spill over from weaker commodity prices, albeit with oil recovering from lows. These moves weighed slightly more on the AUD, with the AUD/NZD cross back to the 1.0900 region, down slightly from recent highs around 1.0930/35.
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